A key cameo in Fallout season 1 offers further evidence that in spite of the show’s big twist, Vault-Tec is not responsible for the bomb that launched the Great War. For years, it’s been understood that China’s bombing of Alaska was the catalyst for Fallout’s apocalypse. Ultimately, that long-held perception is what made Barb Howard’s declaration in Fallout season 1’s ending so shocking; to ensure the company got what they wanted, Barb vowed they would drop the bomb themselves.

This was instantly interpreted by many as a massive retcon, as it led to the implication that Vault-Tec was the true instigator of the Great War. If Fallout’s twist is as straightforward as it seems, it means that Vault-Tec essentially doomed their own country on purpose. However, this new take on what happened hasn’t been universally accepted. Regardless of Barb’s shocking claim, there’s still no concrete evidence that Vault-Tec caused the apocalypse. In fact, one of the show’s cameos is a clue to the contrary.

Mr. House’s Cameo Contradicts Fallout Season 1’s Biggest Twist

Mr. House being in the meeting calls the finale’s biggest twist into question

Among the characters seated at Vault-Tec’s meeting in the Fallout season 1 finale, was Robert House, whose history in the franchise complicates the show’s perceived changes to the canon. Better known as Mr. House, the founder of Rob-Co was the leader of the New Vegas community in Fallout: New Vegas. But before that, he was an extremely knowledgeable and resourceful businessman. Ahead of the launch of the first bomb, Mr. House expected the apocalypse to happen and planned for it accordingly, but erred in his calculations. But if the finale’s twist is to be believed, Mr. House’s plan should have been perfect.

Aided by his wealth of resources and connections, Mr. House tried to determine the exact start date of the Great War. The day he chose was October 24, 2077. He came close, but was off by one day, with the Great War kicking off on October 23. With it occurring a day earlier than he anticipated, Mr. House’s masterplan was undone. He intended to use a device called the platinum chip to protect New Vegas from harm during the Great War. But on account of the bombs dropping early, he had to take shelter before he could get his hands on the platinum chip, which was lost to him until the events of New Vegas.

Mr. House and New Vegas survived the apocalypse regardless, but the city wasn’t fully intact and suffered damages, with Mr. House being left comatose for quite some time. All of this could have been avoided, of course, had he been right about when the first bomb would drop. And if he was really in league with the people that committed this act – as the Fallout season 1 finale implies – his prediction wouldn’t have been wrong. He’d have been told the very day it would happen, allowing him to ensure that he received the platinum chip in time.

What Mr. House’s Vault-Tec Alliance May Reveal About The Start Of The Apocalypse

If he was there, someone other than Vault-Tec must have started the Great War

If Vault-Tec didn’t drop the bomb, Mr. House’s presence in the Vault-Tec meeting could constitute a Fallout: New Vegas plot hole. Or, it could be a sign that Vault-Tec didn’t drop the bomb. Rather, the perpetrator could be exactly who it was assumed to be before the show’s additions to the lore – China. It’s possible that Vault-Tec only intended to drop the first bomb, but never actually needed to take that step. If China nuked Alaska unexpectedly, it wouldn’t have been necessary for Vault-Tec to fulfill Barb’s promise. Via China, they’d have already attained their goal.

That being the case would make perfect sense of Mr. House’s miscalculations. It could be that the day he had settled on, October 24, was the one provided by Vault-Tec, who planned to drop the bomb then. If Vault-Tec had a specific day in mind, that would account for why Mr. House was confident in his predictions. But if China beat Vault-Tec to dropping the first atomic bomb on October 23, that could be the real reason Mr. House thought the apocalypse would start on the wrong day.

This possibility raises another major question about the apocalypse, which pertains to whether or not it was an unlucky coincidence that China dropped the first bomb the day before Vault-Tec’s plan was to go into motion (if that’s what happened.) A coincidence shouldn’t be ruled out, but seems unlikely. Instead, it could be discovered in Fallout season 2 that China’s spies got wind of Vault-Tec’s plans and thought they were going to be bombed. If that’s true, that could have sought to head this off by attacking Alaska.

Other Reasons Why Vault-Tec Probably Didn’t Drop The First Bomb

Mr. House’s cameo corroborates other evidence

The notion that Vault-Tec didn’t start the war is supported by Mr. House’s new connection to the company, but it doesn’t rest on that piece of evidence. Multiple details give credence to the theory, including the comments of those who work on the show. When asked about the twist, Fallout co-showrunner Graham Wagner said not to “treat anything as definitive” and pointed out that what happened between that moment and the bombs following hasn’t been shown. This explanation lines up perfectly with the idea that Vault-Tec didn’t cause the apocalypse. All Barb did was reveal the company’s intention to drop the first bomb.

There’s also the matter of what took place in the flashback in the season premiere. It’s known from the birthday party scene that Cooper and Janey were enjoying a happy day together on October 23, 2077. No matter what may have happened between Barb and Cooper, it’s hard to imagine the former letting her daughter be placed in such a precarious situation. If Vault-Tec had control over when the bombs dropped, it stands to reason that Janey – if not Cooper too – would have been in a safe location. Barb made it clear that her family’s future was her top priority, hence why she wouldn’t have left Janey’s fate to chance.

Plus, there’s the various in-game clues that make China the clear antagonist in the Great War. One example of this is the diaries of Roger Maxson in the first Fallout game, which provide an account of the days leading up to the apocalypse and specifically identify China bombing Alaska as the true starting point. The timeline of events and the history the games have laid out for the world of Fallout leave little room for any game-changing reveals about who launched the first nuke that wouldn’t risk huge plot inconsistencies.