The box office performance of The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Marvel Studios’ highly anticipated reboot released on July 25, 2025, has taken a troubling turn, with numbers steadily declining in the days following its opening weekend. Initially hailed as a potential savior for the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) after a string of underperforming releases, the film’s disappointing trajectory has sparked alarm among fans, analysts, and industry insiders. As of 04:17 PM +07 on Wednesday, July 30, 2025, just five days after its debut, the film’s domestic and global earnings are showing signs of a steeper drop than anticipated, casting a shadow over its long-term prospects and raising questions about the future of Marvel’s Phase 6. This ongoing slide suggests that the MCU may be grappling with deeper challenges beyond mere superhero fatigue.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, directed by Matt Shakman and featuring Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as the iconic superhero family, opened with a promising $118 million domestically and $218 million globally over its first weekend. The debut included a robust $24.4 million from Thursday previews, the highest of 2025, surpassing Superman’s $22.5 million. Early projections had pegged the opening between $100 million and $125 million domestically, with a global range of $190 million to $210 million, and the film briefly outpaced expectations. However, the momentum faltered quickly. Saturday saw a 42% drop to $33.2 million, steeper than Superman’s 33% decline, and Sunday’s $27.8 million pushed the three-day total to $118 million, falling short of the hoped-for $125 million to $135 million range. Globally, the $100 million international haul, led by Mexico ($12 million) and the UK ($10.8 million), was solid but only $2 million behind Superman’s $220 million opening.
The decline has accelerated into the second weekend. By Tuesday, July 29, domestic earnings had reached $128.1 million, with an additional $99.1 million internationally, totaling $227.1 million worldwide. This represents a daily average drop of approximately 16% since Sunday, a trend that suggests a second-weekend gross could fall to around $47 million domestically—nearly a 60% decline from the opening frame. Internationally, the story is bleaker, with China’s $4.5 million debut plummeting 95% by Monday, reflecting a persistent disinterest in superhero films in that market. Analysts now project a global cume of $650 million to $770 million, significantly below the $1 billion threshold that defines a blockbuster for Marvel’s $250 million budget, including marketing costs.
Several factors contribute to this downward spiral. The film’s front-loaded nature, driven by a 71% audience under 35 and strong urban turnout, indicates an initial surge from hardcore fans rather than broad family appeal. EntTelligence data shows a 13% underperformance in rural and suburban areas, where family audiences typically thrive, with only 17% of viewers under 13 compared to a 21% norm for PG-13 superhero films. This suggests the retro-futuristic 1960s setting, while critically praised for its aesthetic, may have alienated casual viewers expecting the multiverse-heavy action of recent MCU entries. Competition from Superman, still strong at $289.5 million domestically after three weeks, and holdovers like Jurassic World Rebirth ($301 million domestic), split premium screens, with IMAX contributing just 13.6% of First Steps’ haul.
Critical reception offers a mixed bag. The film holds an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score and an A- CinemaScore, reflecting positive word-of-mouth from early viewers who laud the ensemble chemistry and family dynamics. Reviews highlight Vanessa Kirby’s standout performance as Sue Storm and the film’s back-to-basics approach, a departure from the convoluted plots of Phase 5 flops like The Marvels ($206 million) and Thunderbolts ($382 million). However, the 42% Saturday drop, sharper than Deadpool & Wolverine’s 36%, signals that this praise hasn’t translated into sustained interest. The villainous duo of Galactus and Shalla-Bal, while visually striking, has been criticized for underdeveloped motivations, a flaw that may deter repeat viewings—a key driver for MCU longevity.
The broader MCU context amplifies the concern. First Steps was touted as a reset, introducing Earth-828 as a standalone universe to ease continuity fatigue after Avengers: Endgame’s 2019 peak. Yet, its struggle mirrors a trend of diminishing returns, with only Deadpool & Wolverine ($1.3 billion) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($859 million) surpassing $500 million since 2022. The film’s $250 million budget, including marketing, requires a global haul of at least $750 million to break even, a target now in jeopardy. The projected second-weekend drop, combined with a weak China performance ($1.7 million Saturday), suggests international markets—once a MCU stronghold—may not compensate for domestic softness, a shift noted in Captain America: Brave New World’s $413 million total.
Industry reactions range from cautious optimism to alarm. Disney has crossed $3 billion globally in 2025 ticket sales, a milestone partly fueled by First Steps, but the film’s trajectory has tempered celebrations. Analysts like Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore argue, “It’s not superhero fatigue, but bad movie fatigue,” pointing to First Steps’ positive reception as a counterpoint to its underperformance. Yet, the 60% drop forecast challenges this, with some attributing it to oversaturation—Superman’s $502.7 million global haul two weeks prior split the superhero audience. Legacy media outlets, such as Variety, frame the $218 million opening as a “solid start,” the fourth-best of 2025, but the rapid decline undermines this spin, hinting at a protective narrative for Disney.
The stakes extend to Avengers: Doomsday, slated for December 2026 with an $800 million budget needing $1.5 billion to break even. The post-credits scene teasing Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom was meant to boost First Steps’ legs, but Downey and Scarlett Johansson’s recent exit from Disney over Pascal’s casting adds uncertainty. If First Steps’ numbers keep sliding—potentially capping at $600 million—Marvel’s ability to fund and market Doomsday could falter, especially with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Secret Wars (2027) on the horizon. The loss of MCU originals, combined with Pascal’s polarizing reception, suggests a franchise at a crossroads.
Musk’s recent actions offer a contrasting lens. His $2.5 million Tesla donation to Texas flood survivors on July 28 and the reinstatement of engineer Matthew LaBrot on July 27 reflect a focus on redemption and innovation, traits Disney might envy amid its MCU woes. Musk’s $90 million loss on July 24 due to a SpaceX pivot highlights his risk-taking, paralleling Marvel’s gamble with First Steps, but his philanthropy contrasts with Disney’s profit-driven reputation. Some speculate Musk’s X platform could amplify the MCU’s narrative struggles, though no direct influence is evident.
For now, First Steps clings to the top spot, but its declining numbers signal a critical juncture. The film’s family-centric story—Reed and Sue’s struggle with their son Franklin’s powers—resonates, yet its inability to hold audiences suggests Marvel must recalibrate. As the box office figures dip lower, the question looms: can the MCU reclaim its magic, or is this the beginning of a downward spiral? The answer lies in the weeks ahead, where every dollar lost could reshape the superhero landscape.
