Tesla’s current vehicles operate on HW3, a computer system introduced in 2019. Customers with older HW2 systems were required to pay $1,000 for an upgrade. Musk warned that there’s a chance HW3 might never be able to handle unsupervised driving

Tesla plans to offer free HW4 upgrades to customers who purchased the $8,000 FSD package, with Musk assuring that the switch would be straightforward. However, the transition may not be as seamless as hoped. Image Credit: Reuters

Elon Musk has finally admitted that Tesla’s long-promised dream of fully self-driving cars might not become a reality, casting doubt on the capabilities of the company’s existing vehicles. Although, not in as many words.

Despite years of assurances that buyers were investing in hardware ready for autonomous driving, the Tesla CEO now suggests that many of these cars may never drive themselves without human supervision.

Tesla’s current vehicles operate on HW3, a computer system introduced in 2019. Customers with older HW2 systems were required to pay $1,000 for an upgrade, believing this would enable their cars to eventually handle full self-driving (FSD) functionality. But now, Musk hints that achieving unsupervised driving might require yet another leap to HW4 — the latest version of Tesla’s computer hardware.

HW4 upgrade sparks uncertainty
Speaking to investors following Tesla’s third-quarter financial results, Musk admitted that HW3 might not meet the safety standards required for fully autonomous driving. While HW4, he said, has several times the processing capability of its predecessor, squeezing advanced features into HW3 systems is proving difficult. Musk warned that there’s a chance HW3 might never be able to handle unsupervised driving.

“There is some chance that HW3 does not achieve the safety level that allows for unsupervised FSD,” he said.

Tesla plans to offer free HW4 upgrades to customers who purchased the $8,000 FSD package, with Musk assuring that the switch would be straightforward. However, the transition may not be as seamless as hoped. HW4 relies on different power systems and camera setups, meaning it could be challenging to retrofit older models without significant modifications. Even Musk admitted Tesla isn’t entirely sure whether the upgrade is feasible, adding to the growing uncertainty.

A pattern of over-promising
Musk’s latest remarks highlight a familiar pattern for Tesla: bold claims about the future of self-driving technology followed by delays and adjustments. Over the years, Tesla has promised that earlier iterations, including HW2, would eventually enable autonomous driving, but these pledges have yet to materialise. Now, even HW4 may not be the final answer, raising concerns about whether Tesla will need yet another hardware upgrade down the road.

Adding to the complexity, Tesla’s reliance on camera-based systems instead of LIDAR – a technology widely used by competitors – continues to spark criticism. Industry experts argue that this decision limits Tesla’s ability to deliver on its promises of fully autonomous driving, making it harder for the company to meet regulatory requirements for public road use.

Regulatory challenges ahead
Despite the hurdles, Musk promised that Tesla will begin rolling out “unsupervised FSD” software next year, starting with its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in California and Texas. However, deploying such software on public streets will require overcoming significant regulatory challenges, as safety concerns remain a major obstacle.

Tesla’s latest setbacks reflect the complex and unpredictable nature of autonomous driving technology. While the company remains committed to pushing forward, the reality is that delivering on its self-driving vision could take longer — and cost more — than initially expected. For now, Tesla owners will have to wait and see whether the promised future of autonomous driving will ever arrive or if it will remain just out of reach.